Since AI Overviews expanded across Google Search in mid-2025, organic publishers have watched impressions rise while clicks fall, a pattern the industry calls the “crocodile effect.” Google Shopping ads are doing the opposite: impressions are declining, but Shopping ads CTR is climbing. That is the headline finding from an analysis of 175 billion Shopping ad impressions published by Mike Ryan of Smarter Ecommerce on LinkedIn in 2026.
What is the “reverse crocodile effect” in Shopping ads?
Between mid-2025 and mid-2026, median Shopping ad impressions fell from roughly 1.85 million to 1.4 million, while median Shopping ads CTR climbed from 1.20% to nearly 1.55%, according to Ryan’s dataset. In plain terms: fewer people are being shown Shopping ads in total, but those who do see them are clicking at a higher rate than before AI Overviews (AIOs, Google’s AI-generated answer blocks shown at the top of search results) launched.
Ryan described the pattern on LinkedIn: “Ever since AIOs launched, publishers have been gaining impressions and losing clicks: the dreaded SEO ‘crocodile effect.’ For Shopping ads, it’s the opposite.” His dataset covers 175 billion impressions, making it one of the larger public analyses of AIO’s commercial impact published to date.
Why are impressions shrinking while CTR rises?
Ryan’s theory centres on how Google decides when to serve an AIO versus a standard results page with Shopping ads. He argues Google evaluates the predicted click probability of each query, then preferentially shows AIOs on queries where users are less likely to click ads anyway. The result: ads show up less often in aggregate, but the impressions that remain are attached to higher-intent queries.
As Ryan wrote: “CTR climbs partly due to a shrinking denominator (fewer impressions) and partly due to selection/pruning (higher click propensity).” In other words, Google may be quietly pruning low-intent queries from the Shopping ad pool, leaving a more commercially ready audience behind.
Ryan frames this as a “bridging strategy.” His reading is that Google is managing the transition between traditional search formats and AI-native formats, moving gradually from an “either/or” model (ads or AIOs) toward a “both/and” model where Shopping ads appear inside AIO responses. He specifically notes that this shift will accelerate as Google scales AI-native ad formats with higher predicted CTR.
How does this diverge from what organic publishers are experiencing?
The contrast with organic search is significant. Organic publishers have seen the classic crocodile effect: impressions growing as AIOs handle a wider range of queries, but clicks declining because users get answers without leaving the search page. Shopping ads show the inverse: the query pool narrows, but the remaining audience is more likely to click through to a product page.
This suggests Google is applying different optimisation logic to commercial queries versus informational ones. Shopping ads appear to be shielded from low-intent queries, while organic results absorb them, whether or not that absorption generates any traffic.
What this means for AI-search visibility
The non-obvious read here: a rising CTR does not automatically mean Shopping ads are in better health. A shrinking impression base is a structural risk even when the rate looks good.
Consider a concrete example. A retailer whose ads previously reached 1.85 million users per month now reaches 1.4 million, roughly 24% fewer people. Even if every remaining user is more likely to click, total click volume may still be declining in absolute terms. A click-through rate improving on a smaller audience is not the same as growing reach. This distinction matters especially for brands in discovery-heavy categories, where exposure to new audiences drives future purchase intent, not just immediate conversion.
Ryan’s “bridging strategy” framing is the part worth watching most closely. If Google is actively working to embed Shopping ads inside AIO responses, the relevant question for e-commerce brands is not “is my CTR improving” but “am I maintaining impression share (the proportion of eligible queries where my ads actually appear) as the format migrates.” A brand that loses visibility on early-stage queries because AIOs are absorbing them loses discovery surface, regardless of what happens to its CTR.
There is also a platform-dependency risk baked into this data. The current dynamics appear to reflect Google’s choices about when to show AIOs versus ads, choices brands cannot directly control through bids or targeting. That structural shift, more than any individual CTR movement, is what warrants close monitoring over the next 12 months as AI-native Shopping formats roll out more broadly.
What to check in your own Shopping ads account before drawing conclusions
- Compare absolute click volume alongside CTR, a rising rate on a declining impression base can mask falling total clicks.
- Segment performance by query type: branded, category-level, and product-specific queries may be responding differently to AIO expansion.
- Monitor impression share loss (the share of eligible queries where ads were not shown) to separate market-wide shifts from account-level issues.
- Review Google Merchant Center’s AI-powered performance insights for signals on which product types are being surfaced in emerging AIO-adjacent Shopping formats.
- Track competitor product visibility inside AI Overviews for your category, AIO Shopping placements are not governed by the same bid logic as standard Shopping campaigns.
- Check assisted and view-through conversion paths: if impressions fall but conversions from other touchpoints hold, ads may still be influencing purchase decisions earlier in the funnel.
The reverse crocodile effect in Shopping ads is real in the data, and Ryan’s bridging-strategy framing offers a credible explanation. Whether Google’s planned expansion of Shopping ads inside AIOs restores impression volume or simply relocates existing clicks into a new container is the open question. That outcome will matter far more to e-commerce advertisers than the current CTR trend line.
Sources: Search Engine Roundtable, Barry Schwartz, 2026; original data analysis by Mike Ryan, Smarter Ecommerce, LinkedIn, 2026.
This article was drafted with AI assistance from the sources cited above and checked against them before publishing. The "What this means for AI-search visibility" section is Hingewise's editorial analysis, built on the frameworks and positions we use in our GEO work. How we work: Editorial policy.